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A Guide to Econometrics

A Guide to Econometrics

Peter Kennedy
1998
T4 623 pages ยท about 10h 23m to read OL8350035Wgoodreads

The plain-language companion to econometric method and its pitfalls

Summary

Kennedy wrote this as a companion to standard econometrics textbooks rather than a replacement. It explains what each technique is for, what assumptions it requires, what goes wrong when they fail, and how practitioners actually handle the failures, all in words rather than in proofs, with the technical material confined to separate sections.

The coverage is standard: ordinary least squares and its assumptions, violations including heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, multicollinearity and measurement error, endogeneity and instrumental variables, simultaneous equations, limited dependent variable models, time series including unit roots and cointegration, panel data, Bayesian methods and forecasting. What distinguishes it is the treatment of practice: Kennedy is candid about specification search, about the difference between what textbooks prescribe and what published papers actually do, and about the temptation to keep running regressions until one produces the expected result. His chapter on the ten commandments of applied econometrics, which includes using common sense and economic theory, avoiding type three error by asking the right question, inspecting the data, and being willing to report negative results, is widely assigned.

For investors and analysts the value is in learning to read empirical work critically: knowing what an instrumental variable must satisfy, why a high R-squared means little, and what a specification test does and does not establish. The 1998 edition predates the modern causal inference literature, including difference-in-differences developments, regression discontinuity and the machine learning methods now common. Later editions cover some of this. The intuitive explanation of the core techniques has not been superseded.

Key takeaways 7

  1. Econometric technique is chosen to handle a specific violation of the standard assumptions, so knowing which assumption fails determines which method applies.
  2. Multicollinearity is a data problem rather than a modelling error, and the available responses all involve accepting less information rather than fixing anything.
  3. An instrumental variable must both correlate with the endogenous regressor and be excluded from the outcome equation, and the second condition cannot be tested.
  4. A high R-squared carries almost no information about whether a model is correctly specified or useful.
  5. Published empirical work rarely reports the specification search that produced it, which means reported significance levels overstate the evidence.
  6. Asking the wrong question with correct technique is the most common and least detected error in applied work.
  7. Economic theory and inspection of the data should discipline model specification, since statistical criteria alone will select a model that fits noise.

Who should read it

Analysts and investors who need to read and evaluate empirical research critically without working through the underlying proofs.

Where it sits in the reference 3

Philosophy
Styles
Mental models

Who recommended it 1

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