Green Swans

Elkington, who introduced the triple bottom line concept in the 1990s, wrote this as a revision of his own position and an argument about the pace of change required.

His reconsideration is the book's starting point. He had publicly recalled the triple bottom line in 2018, arguing that it had been adopted as an accounting and reporting exercise rather than as the change in business purpose he intended, and that measurement had substituted for transformation. This book develops that.

The green swan of the title inverts Taleb's black swan. A black swan is an unforeseen event with severe negative consequences. A green swan is a change with exponentially positive consequences, produced by the interaction of technology, markets, politics and social pressure reaching a tipping point. Elkington argues that incremental improvement cannot address the scale of the environmental problems and that only such non-linear transitions can, so the practical question is how to create the conditions for them.

He also introduces what he calls ugly ducklings, meaning the early-stage ideas that appear marginal and may become green swans, and argues that organisations should be looking for them rather than optimising existing operations.

The analytical content covers tipping points in systems, the distinction between incremental, disruptive and regenerative change, the concept of exponential progress applied to sustainability, and the failure of existing corporate sustainability practice to produce anything at the required scale.

The book is written by a consultant for an executive audience and is more manifesto than analysis. Its concepts are metaphors rather than mechanisms, and it does not supply a method for identifying which ugly ducklings matter. The self-criticism of the triple bottom line is the most useful part, since it comes from the person best placed to make it.