The Central Asian Economies in the Twenty-First Century
The standard economic survey: resource rents, transit corridors, reform records.
Summary
Richard Pomfret has written on Central Asian economies since independence and provides here a comparative economic assessment of the five republics: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
His framework distinguishes them by resource endowment and by policy choice. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have hydrocarbons, Uzbekistan has gas, gold and cotton, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have little and depend on remittances from migrant workers in Russia. He traces the divergent reform paths: Kazakhstan's relatively open economy and sovereign fund, Uzbekistan's long period of state control and currency inconvertibility followed by liberalisation after 2016, Turkmenistan's closed system, and the two poorer republics' dependence on external income.
The book's distinctive theme is the region's changing external position, particularly the Chinese Belt and Road investment and the transport corridors that have altered the landlocked disadvantage the republics inherited. Pomfret examines whether rail connections to China and Europe change the economics of their geography. He is careful about the reliability of official data, which varies enormously between the five. The book is academic and comparative and is the standard current reference on the region's economies.
Key takeaways 7
- The five Central Asian republics diverged sharply after independence according to resource endowment and policy choice.
- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan depend on remittances from migrant workers in Russia to a degree that makes their economies hostage to Russian conditions.
- Uzbekistan's currency inconvertibility suppressed growth for two decades and its removal after 2016 changed the country's trajectory.
- Chinese transport investment has altered the economics of landlocked geography that constrained the region since independence.
- Resource wealth in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan produced very different institutional outcomes despite similar endowments.
- Official economic data quality varies enormously across the five republics, which limits comparative analysis.
- Pomfret argues that geography constrained these economies less than policy did, and that the constraint is now shifting.
Who should read it
Investors and analysts assessing Central Asian markets who want a comparative economic account of the five republics since independence.
Where it sits in the reference 2
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