Biggs on Finance, Economics, and the Stock Market: Barton's Market Chronicles from the Morgan Stanley Years
Posthumous Wiley volume drawn from Morgan Stanley's archive of his strategy notes
Summary
The reference has not verified this book in detail; the summary states only what the title, author and subject establish.
This volume collects the market commentary Barton Biggs wrote as Morgan Stanley's global strategist, published after his death.
The reference has not verified the exact selection or date range. What the form establishes is contemporaneous market commentary written across a period covering the 1980s and 1990s and possibly beyond, in which Biggs assessed conditions, made calls and recorded his reasoning as events unfolded.
The value of such a collection is that it preserves what a well-informed observer thought at the time rather than what was later established. Biggs was known for the quality of his writing, for his willingness to state a view and for his candour about being wrong. He made several well-known calls, including a bearish position on Japan before the 1990 collapse and a bullish position on emerging markets, and also several that did not work.
Biggs's recurring themes across his writing included scepticism about forecasting including his own, attention to sentiment and positioning as indicators, the psychological difficulty of holding contrarian positions through periods of underperformance, and the observation that professional investors' decisions are heavily influenced by career and client considerations rather than by analysis alone.
A collection of dated market commentary has limited use as investment guidance, since the conditions described have passed. Its use is in seeing how a good strategist reasoned in real time, including in the periods when the reasoning turned out to be wrong. Biggs's Hedgehogging, also in this reference, covers the same sensibility in a more readable form.
Key takeaways 6
- Contemporaneous market commentary preserves what an informed observer believed at the time, which retrospective accounts remove.
- Biggs was sceptical of forecasting including his own, and documented his errors alongside his correct calls.
- Sentiment and positioning were among his primary indicators, on the argument that consensus views are already in prices.
- Holding a contrarian position through a period of underperformance is a career problem before it is an analytical one.
- Professional investors' decisions are shaped by client and career considerations as much as by analysis.
- Dated market commentary has limited value as guidance but shows how a strategist reasoned under genuine uncertainty.
Who should read it
Investors interested in how a well-regarded strategist reasoned in real time, though Hedgehogging is the more readable source for the same sensibility.
About Barton Biggs
Chief global strategist, Morgan Stanley 1973-2003; co-founder, Traxis Partners (1932-2012)
Thirty years of Morgan Stanley global strategy plus Hedgehogging, still the most candid insider account of how hedge fund managers actually behave.
Where it sits in the reference 2
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