Electrify

Griffith, an engineer and inventor, wrote this as a technical argument that decarbonising the American economy requires electrifying nearly everything and that the analysis should start from where energy is actually used.

His method is energy flow accounting. He mapped every use of energy in the United States, from power stations through to end uses in vehicles, buildings, industry and appliances, and showed where the energy goes and how much is lost. The key finding is that roughly two thirds of primary energy is wasted, largely as heat in combustion: internal combustion engines convert around a fifth of fuel energy into motion, thermal power stations lose most of the fuel energy up the stack, and gas furnaces lose energy in flues. Electric equivalents are far more efficient at the point of use, so electrifying reduces total primary energy demand substantially even before the generation is decarbonised.

His prescriptions follow from this. Electrify vehicles, space heating through heat pumps, water heating, cooking and industrial process heat where possible. Build generation and storage to match. Do not wait for future technologies, since the required equipment already exists and is manufacturable. Replace equipment at the end of its life rather than prematurely, which sets the timetable: every furnace, car and water heater replaced with a fossil version locks in emissions for its lifetime, so the decision points are the replacement moments.

His financing argument is that the transition is a capital cost problem rather than an operating cost problem, since electrified equipment is cheaper to run and more expensive to buy, and he proposes government-backed low-cost lending as the intervention.

He is dismissive of demand reduction through behaviour change and of some technologies including hydrogen for most uses, which readers may find too confident. The energy flow analysis is the durable contribution.