The Investor's Shelf — one book
Explaining Social Behavior

Explaining Social Behavior

Jon Elster
2007
T3 490 pages · about 8h 10m to read OL1904690Wgoodreads

Elster on mechanisms rather than laws in the social sciences

Summary

Elster's book is a graduate-level statement of how social science explanation should work. His central position is that the social sciences have laws that are too weak to be useful and that the proper unit of explanation is the mechanism, meaning a frequently occurring and easily recognisable causal pattern that is triggered under generally unknown conditions and with indeterminate consequences.

He builds up from the individual: desires, beliefs, emotions, and the ways each is formed and distorted. He covers rational choice theory carefully and then sets out its limits, arguing that rationality is often indeterminate because the agent cannot know what information to gather, and that people frequently act on norms, emotions or self-deception instead. His treatment of emotions is unusually detailed for a methodology book, and he insists that emotions have cognitive antecedents and behavioural consequences that can be specified. The later sections cover interaction, collective action, aggregation, social norms and institutions.

Elster is severe about the state of his own field. He attacks what he calls soft obscurantism in interpretive social science and hard obscurantism in formal modelling and rational choice, arguing that a great deal of published work in economics and political science consists of models whose assumptions are chosen for tractability and whose conclusions are unfalsifiable. For investors and operators the useful content is the mechanism approach, which is a disciplined way of explaining behaviour without pretending to predict it, and the catalogue of specific mechanisms. The book is dense and demanding, and Elster's judgements about entire literatures are stated more forcefully than he defends them.

Key takeaways 7

  1. Social science can identify mechanisms but cannot produce laws, so explanation should aim at understanding what happened rather than predicting what will.
  2. A mechanism is a recognisable causal pattern whose triggering conditions and consequences are not known in advance, which is why several opposed mechanisms can each be valid.
  3. Rational choice explanation frequently fails because rationality is indeterminate, since the agent cannot rationally decide how much information to gather before deciding.
  4. Emotions have identifiable cognitive causes and behavioural effects and belong inside social science explanation rather than outside it.
  5. Social norms operate independently of outcomes and are sustained by the emotions of shame and contempt rather than by any calculation of benefit.
  6. Much formal modelling in economics and political science chooses assumptions for mathematical tractability and produces conclusions that cannot be tested.
  7. Explanation requires specifying the individual-level mechanism, since aggregate correlations without a mechanism do not explain anything.

Who should read it

Investors and analysts who want a rigorous account of what social science explanation can deliver, and a working vocabulary of behavioural mechanisms.

Where it sits in the reference 2

Mental models
Mental models

Who recommended it 2 · 1 direct

Chai with Pabrai bookshelf — Science
Taleb's collected book recommendations, social sciences

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