The Quest
Yergin's sequel on energy security, shale and the majors' changed position.
Summary
Yergin's sequel to The Prize covers energy from 1990 to 2011, extending the history into the period The Prize did not reach and adding renewables, climate policy and electricity to the oil-centred earlier account. The first sections cover the post-Soviet period including the opening of Russian and Caspian resources, the Iraq wars and their effect on supply, the growth of Chinese and Indian demand which changed the demand structure permanently, and the 2008 price spike and collapse.
The unconventional resources material covers the development of shale gas and tight oil through hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, which Yergin identifies as the most consequential energy development of the period and which reversed American import dependence. His account of George Mitchell's persistence over two decades is the clearest case study in the book.
The second half covers electricity as a distinct system, the physics and economics of the grid, climate science and the policy response, renewables including wind and solar with their cost trajectories at the time, biofuels, nuclear after Fukushima, and electric vehicles. Yergin's general position is that energy transitions take decades and that the existing system's scale makes rapid replacement difficult, which is a constraint rather than a preference.
The book was published in 2011 and solar and battery costs have fallen far faster than it anticipated, which is the largest single respect in which it has dated. Yergin has consulting relationships across the energy industry, which readers should weigh. The shale history and the treatment of the grid remain valuable.
Key takeaways 8
- Hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling reversed American import dependence and was the most consequential energy development of the period.
- George Mitchell pursued shale gas for roughly two decades before the technique worked, which is the case study in persistence against expert consensus.
- Chinese and Indian demand growth changed the structure of world energy markets permanently rather than cyclically.
- Electricity is a distinct system with its own physics and economics, and treating it as an extension of fuel markets misdescribes it.
- Energy transitions take decades because the existing system's scale makes rapid replacement physically difficult regardless of policy.
- Energy security means diversity of supply and the capacity to absorb disruption rather than self-sufficiency.
- Nuclear power's trajectory changed after Fukushima in ways that reflected political response rather than any change in the technology.
- Solar and battery costs have fallen far faster than the book anticipated, which is where it has dated most.
Who should read it
Investors and operators in energy who want the post-1990 history including shale and the grid, with the renewable cost projections treated as superseded.
About Daniel Yergin
Vice chairman of S&P Global and co-founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates; won a Pulitzer Prize for The Prize.
The Prize narrates the oil industry from the first Pennsylvania wells to the Gulf War, establishing how companies, states and cartels have set prices and controlled reserves - the standard reference for anyone underwriting an energy asset. The Quest and The New Map carry that account into shale, renewables and the geopolitics of the energy transition.
Where it sits in the reference 5
Who recommended it 2 · 2 direct
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