Demographics and Population Decline
Falling fertility as the slowest-moving and most confidently forecastable input to long-run returns.
10 books
Start here
- Empty PlanetDarrell Bricker, John Ibbitson, 2019
- The Human TidePaul Morland, 2019
- The Great Demographic ReversalCharles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan, 2020
Books 10
Thomas Robert Malthus · 1798 · The original population-versus-resources argument that still frames the debate
David Pilling · 2014 · Japan as the working example of a shrinking, ageing economy.
T2 Empty Planet
Darrell Bricker, John Ibbitson · 2019 · The argument that global population peaks sooner than the UN projects.
Charles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan · 2020 · Shrinking workforces, rising dependency and the case for structural inflation.
T3 Fewer
Ben J. Wattenberg · 2004 · Early statement that the population problem had reversed direction.
Jonathan V. Last · 2013 · Fertility decline argued as an economic rather than a moral problem.
Paul Morland · 2019 · Demography as the hidden driver of the last two centuries of power.
Ross Douthat · 2020 · Argument that rich societies have stagnated into repetition and sterility
Jennifer D. Sciubba · 2022 · A political demographer on what the numbers do and do not determine.
Peter Zeihan · 2022 · Demographics used, aggressively, as a forecasting engine.