Second-Order Thinking
First-level thinking says good company, buy the stock; second-level asks what the price already assumes and who on the other side disagrees. Returns come not from being right but from being right where consensus is wrong. Every consequence has consequences, so the habit is to keep asking 'and then what?' until the answer stops surprising you.
5 books · 2 people behind it · 4 resources
Start here
- The Most Important ThingHoward Marks, 2011
- The Great Mental Models Volume 1Shane Parrish, 2019
- Thinking in SystemsDonella H. Meadows, 2008
The people behind it 2
Each person holds a book in this entry or names it in their own tags.
Investors 1
Journalists 1
Resources 4
- Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People UseShane Parrish · essay · Asking 'and then what?' before acting.
- Who Is On the Other Side?Michael J. Mauboussin · paper · A framework for locating your actual source of edge.
- Investing in Second-Order EffectsMichael J. Mauboussin · paper · Where the non-obvious beneficiaries of a shift sit.
- Revenge Effects: When Technology Bites BackShane Parrish · essay · Solutions that create the problem they were meant to fix.
Books 5
Donella H. Meadows · 2008
