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Inflation-Indexed Securities

Inflation-Indexed Securities

Mark Deacon, Andrew Derry, Dariush Mirfendereski
2004
T3 360 pages · about 6h to read Open Librarygoodreads

The standard reference on linker design, pricing and global markets.

Summary

Mark Deacon and Andrew Derry, with Dariush Mirfendereski in the second edition, wrote the standard practitioner reference on index-linked government bonds. Deacon and Derry worked at the Bank of England on the United Kingdom's index-linked gilt programme, which began in 1981 and was the first significant issuance by a developed sovereign, so the book carries the perspective of the issuer as well as the investor.

The content divides into three parts. The first covers why governments issue index-linked debt, including the arguments about reducing the inflation risk premium, signalling commitment to price stability, and extracting information about inflation expectations from the breakeven rate. The second covers the mechanics in detail: indexation lags, the difference between the Canadian model and the older United Kingdom eight-month lag structure, deflation floors, tax treatment, and the cash-flow arithmetic. The third covers the individual national markets, including the United Kingdom, the United States, France, Canada, Australia, Sweden and several emerging markets, with the institutional detail of each programme.

The second edition also treats inflation derivatives, which had grown substantially by 2004. The book's weakness is that it stops before the 2008 crisis, when index-linked markets became severely illiquid and breakeven rates stopped functioning as clean expectations measures, and before the large-scale central bank purchases that further distorted them. Anyone using breakevens as an inflation signal should read the book's own careful discussion of why the breakeven contains a liquidity premium and a risk premium alongside expected inflation.

Key takeaways 7

  1. The breakeven inflation rate contains a liquidity premium and an inflation risk premium in addition to expected inflation, so it is a biased forecast.
  2. Indexation lags mean that index-linked bonds do not hedge inflation over the final months before maturity.
  3. Governments issue index-linked debt partly to signal that they do not intend to inflate away their obligations.
  4. The design choice between short and long indexation lags determines whether the bond trades as a real instrument or carries nominal exposure.
  5. Deflation floors on principal, present in United States securities and absent in United Kingdom ones, are an embedded option with measurable value.
  6. Tax treatment of the inflation uplift differs by jurisdiction and can eliminate the real return advantage for taxable holders.
  7. Index-linked markets are structurally illiquid because most holders are liability matchers who do not trade.

Who should read it

Fixed income practitioners and treasury officials who need the technical mechanics and cross-country design detail of index-linked government debt.

Similar books 6

Chosen by shared topics, the entries that hold them, and the people who recommended both.

John Brynjolfsson, Frank J. Fabozzi · 1999

Essays on inflation-indexed bonds, written as the US TIPS market opened.

Brice Benaben · 2005

Guide for investors and ALM managers to linked bonds and swaps.

Brice Benaben · 2008

Successor survey to Benaben's earlier volume: pricing, hedging, market structure.

Robert J. Greer · 2005

Inflation-linked bonds, commodities and real assets compared as inflation hedges.

Jack D. Schwager · 1984

Second edition 2017 with Mark Etzkorn, titled A Complete Guide to the Futures Market.

Richard M. Bookstaber · 2007

How financial innovation made markets more crisis-prone, from a risk manager.

Where it sits in the reference 1

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Topics

Finance and MarketsInvesting