Crashed
Links the euro crisis to the dollar funding system and the transatlantic banking network.
Summary
Tooze, an economic historian, wrote a history of the decade following 2008 that treats the financial crisis, the eurozone crisis and the subsequent political disruption as one connected sequence.
His principal analytical contribution concerns the nature of the 2008 crisis. The standard account treats it as an American housing and mortgage problem. Tooze argues it was a transatlantic dollar funding crisis. European banks had built enormous dollar balance sheets, borrowing short-term dollars in wholesale markets to hold American mortgage assets, and when that funding stopped they faced a dollar shortage that their own central banks could not supply. The Federal Reserve resolved it by extending currency swap lines to foreign central banks and by lending directly to the American branches of European banks, in amounts far exceeding the publicly debated bailout programmes. He treats this as evidence that the dollar system is global and that the Federal Reserve functions as its lender of last resort whether or not it acknowledges the role.
The eurozone sections argue that the European crisis was a banking crisis misdiagnosed as a fiscal one, that the resulting austerity programmes were economically counterproductive and politically destructive, and that the European Central Bank's slow response reflected German legal and political constraints rather than technical difficulty. He connects the resulting economic damage to the political developments of the following years, including the rise of nationalist parties, the Ukraine crisis, Brexit and the 2016 American election.
The book is long, dense and assumes familiarity with the events. Critics have argued that Tooze links the economic and political developments more confidently than the evidence supports, that his treatment of German policymakers is unsympathetic, and that his account of central bank power sometimes shades into a claim of intentional design where improvisation is the better explanation. The dollar funding analysis is now widely accepted and is the book's most durable contribution.
Key takeaways 7
- The 2008 crisis was a transatlantic dollar funding crisis rather than a purely American mortgage problem.
- European banks held large dollar asset positions funded by short-term dollar borrowing that their own central banks could not replace.
- Federal Reserve swap lines and direct lending to foreign bank branches exceeded the publicly debated rescue programmes in scale.
- The Federal Reserve functions as lender of last resort to the global dollar system regardless of its formal mandate.
- The eurozone crisis was a banking crisis diagnosed as a fiscal crisis, which led to policies that addressed the wrong problem.
- Austerity imposed on countries inside a monetary union deepens their contraction because devaluation is unavailable.
- The political disruption of the following decade followed directly from the economic damage of the crisis response.
Who should read it
Investors and operators who want the connected account of how the crisis, the eurozone response and the subsequent politics fit together, particularly the dollar funding analysis.
Where it sits in the reference 3
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