Frontier: Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow

Serkin, a Bloomberg journalist, travelled to ten frontier markets with Mark Mobius, the emerging market fund manager, and wrote about what they found.

The countries covered include Myanmar, Vietnam, Nigeria, Kenya, Romania, Argentina and others selected as markets at an earlier stage of development than the established emerging markets. The format combines travel narrative, meetings with local businesses and officials, and Mobius's assessments.

The recurring analytical content concerns what makes a frontier market investable and what does not. Serkin covers the practical obstacles: market liquidity so thin that a position cannot be exited, custody and settlement arrangements that create operational risk, currency convertibility and repatriation restrictions, accounting and disclosure standards that make company analysis unreliable, corporate governance where controlling shareholders can expropriate minorities with no recourse, and political risk where a change of government can change the rules retrospectively.

He also covers what attracts investors: demographic profiles with young growing populations, low starting income levels that permit rapid catch-up growth, sectors including consumer goods, banking and telecommunications where penetration is low, and valuations that reflect the risks.

The book was published in 2015 and the subsequent decade tested the selections severely. Myanmar's opening reversed after the 2021 coup. Nigeria's currency and oil dependence produced repeated crises. Argentina defaulted again. Frontier market equity returns as a category were poor over the period.

The book is journalism rather than analysis, and the fund manager accompanying the author had a professional interest in the asset class. It is useful for the practical description of what operating in these markets involves rather than for the selections.