Signal versus Noise
Most of what arrives daily is variation without information, and the volume of data has grown far faster than the amount of signal in it. Treating noise as signal produces overtrading, spurious patterns and confident nonsense. The remedy is to decide in advance what evidence would actually change the position, then ignore the rest.
7 books · 2 people behind it · 4 resources
Start here
- How to Lie with StatisticsDarrell Huff, 1954
- The Signal and the NoiseNate Silver, 2012
- SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015
The people behind it 2
Each person holds a book in this entry or names it in their own tags.
Academics 1
Journalists 1
Resources 4
- Pattern Recognition: Opportunities and LimitsMichael J. Mauboussin · paper · Where patterns are signal and where they are noise.
- Common Probability Errors to AvoidShane Parrish · essay · Small samples, base-rate neglect and the gambler's fallacy.
- The Illusion of KnowledgeHoward Marks · memo · Why macro forecasts feel informative and are not.
- How to Spot Bad ScienceShane Parrish · essay · A checklist for claims that will not replicate.
Books 7
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005
Jimmy Soni, Rob Goodman · 2017 · Claude Shannon and the invention of information theory
T2 Factfulness
Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Ronnlund · 2018 · Global development data set against intuition; the outside view applied
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein · 2021