Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-2015
The long-run reconstruction of Spanish output and productivity.
Summary
Leandro Prados de la Escosura reconstructs Spain's national accounts from 1850 to 2015, producing consistent historical series for output, expenditure, employment, capital and productivity. The book is primarily a data construction exercise and secondarily an interpretation of what the data show.
The method involves rebuilding gross domestic product from the production side across agriculture, industry and services, with consistent price deflators, and reconciling it with expenditure and income estimates. This kind of work matters because prior Spanish historical series were inconsistent across periods and produced different conclusions about when Spain grew and why. Prados de la Escosura's series are now the standard reference.
The interpretation identifies the periods of growth and their sources. He finds that Spanish growth was driven by total factor productivity in some periods and by factor accumulation in others, that the autarkic policies of the early Franco period were substantially damaging, that the liberalisation of 1959 marked the beginning of rapid convergence with Western Europe, and that convergence stalled after 1975 and resumed only partially. He also examines regional divergence and the role of human capital. The book is quantitative economic history and is written for specialists. Its data appendices are its most widely used component.
Key takeaways 7
- Consistent historical national accounts change the conclusions about when Spain grew and what drove the growth.
- Autarkic economic policy in the early Franco period substantially reduced Spanish output below its achievable level.
- The 1959 stabilisation and liberalisation plan marked the beginning of rapid convergence with Western Europe.
- Spanish convergence with the European core stalled after 1975 and has resumed only partially since.
- Total factor productivity rather than factor accumulation drove Spanish growth in the periods of fastest convergence.
- Human capital accumulation in Spain lagged behind income growth for most of the period, which constrained productivity.
- Prados de la Escosura argues that historical growth estimates are highly sensitive to deflator construction, which earlier series handled inconsistently.
Who should read it
Economic historians and analysts who need consistent long-run Spanish data and an interpretation of the country's growth episodes.
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