Robert J. Shiller
Sterling Professor of Economics Emeritus, Yale University; co-creator of the Case-Shiller home price indices; Nobel laureate in economics 2013
Excess-volatility work and Irrational Exuberance are the primary sources for the empirical case that asset prices move far more than fundamentals justify.
10 books of their own · 38 articles
Books they wrote 10
Letters
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/publications.htm
No letter archive exists. Shiller keeps his own publication list at econ.yale.edu/~shiller/publications.htm (sections: articles in scholarly journals, public policy and op-ed pieces, Project Syndicate columns, patents, and short articles, comments and book reviews) and posts full texts at econ.yale.edu/~shiller/online.htm. His Project Syndicate column archive is at project-syndicate.org/columnist/robert-j-shiller and his New York Times 'Economic View' columns are on nytimes.com; both are indexes rather than letters.
Research papers 16
- Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Lecture)American Economic Review, 2014
- Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage?American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 2014
- Aligning Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions: A Proposal by the Squam Lake GroupJournal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2013
- Capitalism and Financial InnovationFinancial Analysts Journal, 2013
- Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation, and CrisesJournal of the History of Economic Thought, 2013
- Mitigating Financial Fragility with Continuous Workout MortgagesJournal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2013
- Reflections on Finance and the Good SocietyAmerican Economic Review, 2013
- Economists as Worldly PhilosophersAmerican Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 2011
- Crisis and InnovationThe Journal of Portfolio Management, 2010
- How Should the Financial Crisis Change How We Teach Economics?Journal of Economic Education, 2010
- The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial SystemJournal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2010
- Hedging Real-Estate RiskJournal of Portfolio Management, 2009
- The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation of President Bush's ProposalJournal of Policy Modeling, 2006
- The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A ReviewNBER Working Paper No. 11300, 2005
- Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market OutlookJournal of Portfolio Management (with John Y. Campbell), 1998
- Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?NBER Working Paper No. 456 (published in American Economic Review 1981), 1980
Columns 4
- Trills Instead of T-Bills: It's Time to Replace Part of Government Debt with Shares in GDPThe Economists' Voice, 2010
- Unlearned Lessons from the Housing BubbleThe Economists' Voice, 2009
- Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home PricesThe Economists' Voice, 2006
- Life-Cycle Portfolios as Government PolicyThe Economists' Voice, 2005
Articles and essays 18
- Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize lecture)The Nobel Foundation, 2013
- Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012Critical Finance Review, 2013
- A Pricing Framework for Real Estate DerivativesEuropean Financial Management, 2012
- Spotting BubblesThe International Economy, 2011
- Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate RiskEuropean Financial Management, 2010
- Stimulus and Regulation (testimony before the UN General Assembly Second Committee)United Nations, 2010
- Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond MarketsBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009
- Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and HomeownershipHousing, Housing Finance and Monetary Policy (Jackson Hole), 2008
- Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic ModelsBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007
- Tools for Financial Innovations: Neoclassical versus Behavioral FinanceThe Financial Review, 2006
- Behavioral Economics and Institutional InnovationSouthern Economic Journal, 2005
- Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market vs. the Housing MarketAdvances in Macroeconomics, 2005
- The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early AmericaThe Origins of Value, 2005
- Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock MarketEconomic Inquiry, 2005
- Social Security and Risks to Our Incomes in the Long Term (McKenna Lecture)Robert Shiller online papers, 1999
- Macro Markets and Financial SecurityFRBNY Economic Policy Review, 1999
- Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk SharingCowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1185, 1998
- Price Earnings Ratios as Forecasters of ReturnsRobert Shiller online papers, 1996
Blog
Robert J. Shiller home page, Yale (data, papers, books)