Narrative Fallacy
The mind builds causal stories that fit the facts and then treats the story as evidence, compressing luck and noise into a clean explanation. Markets run on such stories, which is why a business can be repriced entirely on a change of framing. The discipline is to distinguish what happened from why you believe it happened, and to hold the second loosely.
9 books · 2 people behind it · 4 resources
Start here
- Fooled by RandomnessNassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001
- The Halo EffectPhil Rosenzweig, 2007
- Narrative EconomicsRobert J. Shiller, 2019
The people behind it 2
Each person holds a book in this entry or names it in their own tags.
Academics 2
Resources 4
- The Narrative FallacyShane Parrish · essay · We build causal stories that outrun the evidence.
- The Best Story WinsMorgan Housel · essay · Narrative, not data, moves most capital.
- The Green Lumber FallacyShane Parrish · essay · Knowing the theory is not knowing the trade.
- Why You Believe the Things You DoMorgan Housel · essay · Incentives and experience shape sincere conviction.
Books 9
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2007
Joseph Campbell · 1949 · The monomyth; why the same story shape persuades across cultures
Chip Heath, Dan Heath · 2007 · Why some ideas are remembered and repeated; six sticky attributes
Joseph Campbell, Bill Moyers · 1988 · Campbell on the recurring stories cultures tell themselves
Chuck Klosterman · 2016 · How present certainties will look to the future; outside view applied