Overconfidence
Calibration research keeps returning the same result: confidence outruns accuracy, and the gap widens with information and expertise. Investors express it as precise forecasts, oversized positions and returns traded away. The counters are unglamorous - record explicit probabilities and score them later, and size every position for the version of the future where you are wrong.
7 books · 3 people behind it · 4 resources
Start here
- Thinking in BetsAnnie Duke, 2018
- Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman, 2011
- SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015
The people behind it 3
Each person holds a book in this entry or names it in their own tags.
Academics 2
Journalists 1
Resources 4
- Bias from OverconfidenceShane Parrish · essay · Confidence keeps rising after accuracy stops.
- The Illusion of ValidityShane Parrish · essay · Coherent stories feel valid regardless of predictive power.
- The Folly of CertaintyHoward Marks · memo · Confident forecasts and the damage they do.
- Decision JournalsShane Parrish · essay · Recording the reasoning so hindsight cannot rewrite it.
Books 7
Daniel Kahneman · 2011
Andrew WilkinsonCharles de VaulxFrank MartinMichael MauboussinMohnish PabraiRational Capital Investment FundSeth KlarmanStewart BrandAbi Tyas TunggalAlbert WengerAlfred LinAmy HoodBill GatesBryan JohnsonCharlie MungerDaniel BurkaDavid CancelDavid HellmannEv WilliamsJason FriedJason ZweigJulie ZhuoMarc AndreessenNassim Nicholas TalebNaval RavikantPaul BassatRay DalioRon ConwaySahil BloomSahil LavingiaSam AltmanSatya NadellaSophie BakalarTristan Harris
Max H. Bazerman · 1986 · The standard text on decision bias written for managers
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005