
Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths translate classical computer science results — optimal stopping, explore/exploit tradeoffs, scheduling — into guidance for human decisions. The 37% rule for when to stop searching and commit is the most cited single insight.
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Four traps that ruin decisions, such as narrow framing, and a process to beat each.
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The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.
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Why some forecasts succeed and most fail, from weather to earthquakes and economics.
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Bevelin distilling observation and inference habits from Sherlock Holmes
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