Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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Market Timing and Tactical Allocation

Portfolio and risk

Whether and how to vary exposure with valuation, momentum or the cycle. Most of the credible evidence is modest and rule-based.

Books 8Experts 4Recommenders 6

Start here

  1. Mastering the Market CycleHoward Marks, 2018
  2. Irrational ExuberanceRobert J. Shiller, 2000
  3. Anatomy of the BearRussell Napier, 2005
Stocks for the Long RunStocks for the Long Run
T1 Stocks for the Long Run
Jeremy J. Siegel · 1994
Open LibraryGoodreads

US returns since 1802 show stocks beat bonds and cash over every long period.

“his book "Stocks for the Long Run" contributed greatly to the bull market's middle years” — Howard Marks

Source: Oaktree memo 'Irrational Exuberance'

Recommended by: Howard Marks

Irrational ExuberanceIrrational Exuberance
T1 Irrational Exuberance
Robert J. Shiller · 2000
Open LibraryGoodreads

How psychology, not fundamentals, drove the stock and housing booms of 2000 and 2005.

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Andrew Lokenauth and 1 other

Mastering the Market CycleMastering the Market Cycle
T1 Mastering the Market Cycle
Howard Marks · 2018
Open LibraryGoodreads

Cycles can't be timed, but knowing where you stand in one lets you adjust risk.

Recommended by: Nat Eliason, Michael Bloomberg

Anatomy of the BearAnatomy of the Bear
T2 Anatomy of the Bear
Russell Napier · 2005
Open LibraryGoodreads

What markets looked like at the US stock bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.

Active Value InvestingActive Value Investing
T3 Active Value Investing
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

Katsenelson on buying and selling inside range-bound markets.

The Ivy PortfolioThe Ivy Portfolio
T3 The Ivy Portfolio
Mebane T. Faber, Eric W. Richardson · 2009
Open LibraryGoodreads

Wiley. Confirmed on mebfaber.com/books

Dual Momentum Investing
T3 Dual Momentum Investing
Gary Antonacci · 2014
Open LibraryGoodreads

Absolute momentum as a systematic substitute for judgement.

Adaptive Asset AllocationAdaptive Asset Allocation
T3 Adaptive Asset Allocation
Adam Butler, Michael Philbrick, Rodrigo Gordillo · 2015
Open LibraryGoodreads

Rule-based momentum and volatility allocation, tested rather than asserted.

More portfolio and risk

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