The Simple Path to Wealth

Collins built this from a series of letters written to his daughter and from posts on his blog. It is a personal finance book with a narrow and explicit prescription.

The argument runs in a sequence. Avoid debt entirely. Spend well below your income, aiming to save a large fraction of it. Invest the savings in a single low-cost total stock market index fund, which for his purposes is Vanguard's VTSAX. Do not attempt to time the market, pick stocks, or hire an adviser. Add a total bond market fund as you approach and enter the drawdown phase to reduce volatility. Withdraw roughly four per cent a year in retirement, based on the Trinity study. Understand that the point of accumulating money is what Collins calls F-you money, meaning enough capital that you can decline work you do not want.

His supporting material is the long-run record of US equity returns, the arithmetic of costs compounded over decades, and evidence that most active managers underperform after fees. He is explicit that his approach depends on the investor's ability to hold through severe drawdowns without selling, and he spends considerable space on that psychological requirement.

The weaknesses are the ones common to the genre. The historical US equity record may not repeat, and a portfolio holding one country's stocks carries concentration risk Collins largely dismisses. The four per cent rule was derived from a specific historical sample and fails in some sequences of returns. The advice assumes an income large enough to permit a high savings rate, which limits its reach.