Same as Ever

Housel's second book collects twenty-three short essays about aspects of human behaviour that do not change, on the argument that forecasting what will change is unproductive while understanding what will not is both possible and useful.

The recurring themes include: risk is what you do not see coming, since the risks you have identified are already managed; people underestimate how much of any outcome is chance; expectations rise with circumstances, which is why rising prosperity does not produce satisfaction; good stories beat good statistics in determining what people believe and do; calm periods generate the confidence that produces the next crisis, which is Minsky's argument restated; the biggest events in history are unpredictable and their consequences compound in ways nobody traces; small changes compound into enormous outcomes over long periods; and progress requires optimism about the long run combined with pessimism about the short run.

Housel writes in short chapters with historical anecdotes drawn widely, from military history, medicine, business and natural disasters. The prose is deliberately plain and the structure allows any chapter to be read alone.

The book has no argument beyond the accumulation of observations, and it is not research. The anecdotes are chosen to illustrate conclusions rather than to test them, and several are familiar from other popular books. Its value is as compressed and well-written statements of ideas that investors know and do not act on, and readers who want the underlying material should go to Kahneman, Minsky, Taleb and the original sources Housel draws on.

Partner, Collaborative Fund; former columnist at The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal

The Psychology of Money reframed personal finance around behaviour rather than arithmetic and has outlived its news cycle as the standard modern introduction to the subject.

Collaborative Fund, The Motley Fool, The Wall Street Journal