Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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The Lindy Effect

Mental models

For non-perishables - ideas, institutions, business models - expected remaining life grows with age, because each year survived is evidence of robustness. Investors use it as a base rate for durability: a franchise that has repelled competitors for fifty years earns a longer forecast than one that has managed five. The burden of proof sits with whoever says this time is different.

Books 5Experts 2Recommenders 46Resources 4

Start here

  1. Same as EverMorgan Housel, 2023
  2. AntifragileNassim Nicholas Taleb, 2012
  3. Skin in the GameNassim Nicholas Taleb, 2018
The Black SwanThe Black Swan
T1 The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

Rare, unforeseen, high-impact events drive history, explained only after the fact.

“The message of The Black Swan is how important it is to realize that the things everyone rules out can still come to pass.” — Howard Marks

Source: Oaktree memo 'The Limits to Negativism'

Recommended by: Howard Marks, Marc Andreessen, Nat Eliason and 18 others

AntifragileAntifragile
T1 Antifragile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2012
Open LibraryGoodreads

Incerto volume 4

“Nassim Taleb, author of the new book Antifragile, praises volatility and criticises those who would artificially damp it at great unseen cost. Taleb advises us to be 'anti-fragile'. This is exactly…” — Seth Klarman

Source: Klarman on Taleb's praise of volatility and what Baupost strives for

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Nat Eliason and 25 others

Skin in the GameSkin in the Game
T2 Skin in the Game
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2018
Open LibraryGoodreads

Incerto volume 5

Recommended by: Nat Eliason, Ana Fabrega, Ben Horowitz and 12 others

The Living CompanyThe Living Company
T3 The Living Company
Arie de Geus · 1997
Open LibraryGoodreads

What companies that lasted over a century have in common, from a Shell planner.

“Recently, I came across two books on long lived companies: ''The Living Company, Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment'' by Arie de Geus” — Prem Watsa

Source: Fairfax Financial 2020 Shareholders' Letter, p. 30

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Prem Watsa

Same as EverSame as Ever
T3 Same as Ever
Morgan Housel · 2023
Open LibraryGoodreads

“There are many things that never change” — Andrew Wilkinson

Source: Newsletter

Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson

More mental models

← The Efficient Market HypothesisThe Map Is Not the Territory →All mental models