
Every model discards detail in order to be usable, and the discarded detail is where it will eventually fail you. Accounting statements, factor models and industry categories are all maps drawn by someone with a purpose. Knowing what a model leaves out is the difference between using it and being used by it.
Rare, unforeseen, high-impact events drive history, explained only after the fact.
“The message of The Black Swan is how important it is to realize that the things everyone rules out can still come to pass.” — Howard Marks
Source: Oaktree memo 'The Limits to Negativism'
Recommended by: Howard Marks, Marc Andreessen, Nat Eliason and 18 others
Meadows wrote this before systems thinking became a popular phrase, and it remains the clearest account of why short-term interventions in complex systems so often backfire. The chapter on leverage points is the conceptual core of what long-term thinking actually requires from decision-makers.
Recommended by: Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Daniel Burka and 3 others
Language, logic and the limits of what can be said about the world.
Recommended by: Reid Hoffman
A quant on confusing models with reality, in finance and life
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Thought experiments and other tools a philosopher uses to reason carefully.
Recommended by: Patrick Collison, Shane Parrish
Recommended by: Keith Rabois, Michael Mauboussin
Recommended by: Ana Fabrega, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jenny Chu and 2 others
Eco on how we categorise the world and where categories fail
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nozick on objectivity and what stays invariant across perspectives
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Short essays on the scientific concepts most worth adopting
Recommended by: Morgan Housel, Patrick Collison
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