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Latticework: The New Investing

Latticework: The New Investing

Robert G. Hagstrom
2000
T2 244 pages · about 4h 4m to read Open Librarygoodreads

Munger's multidisciplinary latticework applied to investment analysis

Summary

Hagstrom builds out Charlie Munger's idea that an investor should assemble a latticework of mental models from multiple disciplines rather than rely on finance alone. He takes chapters from physics, biology, sociology, psychology, philosophy and literature, explains a core concept from each, and then argues for its application to markets.

The specific transfers are: equilibrium from physics as a description of markets that the evidence does not support; evolution and adaptation from biology as a better description, with markets treated as complex adaptive systems in the Santa Fe Institute sense; self-organisation and emergence from sociology, including ant colony behaviour and information cascades; behavioural findings from psychology on overreaction and overconfidence; pragmatism from philosophy on how to hold beliefs; and close reading from literature as a model for how to interpret ambiguous evidence.

The book is an introduction to a way of thinking rather than a source of methods. It is most useful to investors who want a structured entry point into the complexity-economics view of markets and a reading list to follow. The weakness is that cross-disciplinary analogy is exactly what the book asks the reader to do, and the connections drawn are often suggestive rather than demonstrated, particularly the biology and literature chapters. Later work, including Mauboussin's and Beinhocker's, develops the complex-adaptive-systems argument with more rigour. Hagstrom's own later book Investing: The Last Liberal Art is a revised version of this material.

Key takeaways 7

  1. An investor should hold models from several disciplines, because a single framework applied to every situation produces systematic blind spots.
  2. Markets behave as complex adaptive systems rather than as equilibrium systems, which means they do not reliably return to a fair value.
  3. The physics-derived equilibrium models that underpin standard finance describe a system that markets are not.
  4. Diversity of participant strategies is what makes a market efficient, and efficiency breaks down when participants converge on the same model.
  5. Information cascades explain why prices move a long way on little new information, since each participant treats others' actions as evidence.
  6. Beliefs should be held as working hypotheses evaluated by their consequences, following the pragmatist position, rather than as convictions.
  7. Reading widely outside finance produces better investment judgement than reading more finance.

Who should read it

Investors looking for a structured introduction to multidisciplinary thinking and to the complex-systems view of markets, as a gateway to more rigorous treatments.

About Robert G. Hagstrom

American portfolio manager who ran Legg Mason's Focus Trust and later served as chief investment strategist at EquityCompass.

The Warren Buffett Way was the first book to reconstruct Buffett's purchases as a repeatable set of business, management, financial and valuation tests, and it set the template later Buffett books follow. Latticework and Investing: The Last Liberal Art carry the same argument into physics, biology and psychology as sources of investment models.

Legg Mason, EquityCompass

Who recommended it 1 · 1 direct

“I'd recommend reading Robert Hagstrom's outstanding book, Latticework.”

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Robert G. Hagstrom · 2013

What physics, biology, psychology and other fields teach about investing.

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Source: Masters in Business transcript: Thomas S. Gayner, Markel Corp

Recommended by: Morgan Housel, Thomas Gayner

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Reasoning methods of fictional detectives such as Dupin applied to stock analysis.

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Builds out Munger's latticework idea from primary sources.

“…books I've recommended, highlighted to death, or forced on friends.” — Andrew Wilkinson

Source: Andrew Wilkinson's Bookshelf, neverenough.com

Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Nat Eliason and 8 others

Peter Bevelin · 2013

Bevelin distilling observation and inference habits from Sherlock Holmes

Daniel C. Dennett · 2013

Thought experiments and other tools a philosopher uses to reason carefully.

Where it sits in the reference 4

Journalists
Investment philosophy
Mental models
Mental models

Topics

InvestingDecision Making