Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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Bayesian Updating

Mental models

Arithmetic for changing your mind: start from a prior, weigh new evidence by how much likelier it is under one hypothesis than another, arrive at a posterior. For an investor a thesis is a prior, and each earnings report should move conviction in proportion to its surprise. Refusing to update is still Bayes, just with the evidence weighted at zero.

Books 6Experts 1Recommenders 17Resources 4

Start here

  1. The Signal and the NoiseNate Silver, 2012
  2. The Theory That Would Not DieSharon Bertsch McGrayne, 2011
  3. SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015
The Signal and the NoiseThe Signal and the Noise
T1 The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver · 2012
Open LibraryGoodreads

Why some forecasts succeed and most fail, from weather to earthquakes and economics.

Recommended by: Bill Gates, Mohnish Pabrai, Sophie Bakalar

SuperforecastingSuperforecasting
T1 Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner · 2015
Open LibraryGoodreads

The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.

Recommended by: Patrick Collison and 9 others

Expert Political JudgmentExpert Political Judgment
T2 Expert Political Judgment
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005
Open LibraryGoodreads

A 20-year test of 28,000 expert forecasts: foxes with many models beat hedgehogs.

“All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.” — Marc Andreessen

Source: @pmarca, 'Thread: Books I've recently read and recommend'

Recommended by: Marc Andreessen, Michael Mauboussin and 2 others

How to Measure AnythingHow to Measure Anything
T2 How to Measure Anything
Douglas W. Hubbard · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

Calibration and the value of information applied to intangibles.

Recommended by: Julia Galef, Nick Ganju

The Theory That Would Not DieThe Theory That Would Not Die
T2 The Theory That Would Not Die
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne · 2011
Open LibraryGoodreads
The Science of ConjectureThe Science of Conjecture
T3 The Science of Conjecture
James Franklin · 2001
Open LibraryGoodreads

How evidence and probability were reasoned about before formal statistics

Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

More mental models

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