Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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Signal versus Noise

Mental models

Most of what arrives daily is variation without information, and the volume of data has grown far faster than the amount of signal in it. Treating noise as signal produces overtrading, spurious patterns and confident nonsense. The remedy is to decide in advance what evidence would actually change the position, then ignore the rest.

Books 7Experts 2Recommenders 28Resources 4

Start here

  1. How to Lie with StatisticsDarrell Huff, 1954
  2. The Signal and the NoiseNate Silver, 2012
  3. SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015
How to Lie with StatisticsHow to Lie with Statistics
T1 How to Lie with Statistics
Darrell Huff · 1954
Open LibraryGoodreads

How biased samples, chosen averages and cut-off chart axes make numbers mislead.

Recommended by: Bill Gates, Mohnish Pabrai, Morgan Housel and 6 others

The Signal and the NoiseThe Signal and the Noise
T1 The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver · 2012
Open LibraryGoodreads

Why some forecasts succeed and most fail, from weather to earthquakes and economics.

Recommended by: Bill Gates, Mohnish Pabrai, Sophie Bakalar

SuperforecastingSuperforecasting
T1 Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner · 2015
Open LibraryGoodreads

The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.

Recommended by: Patrick Collison and 9 others

Expert Political JudgmentExpert Political Judgment
T2 Expert Political Judgment
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005
Open LibraryGoodreads

A 20-year test of 28,000 expert forecasts: foxes with many models beat hedgehogs.

“All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.” — Marc Andreessen

Source: @pmarca, 'Thread: Books I've recently read and recommend'

Recommended by: Marc Andreessen, Michael Mauboussin and 2 others

A Mind at PlayA Mind at Play
T2 A Mind at Play
Jimmy Soni, Rob Goodman · 2017
Open LibraryGoodreads

The life of Claude Shannon, whose information theory underlies the digital age.

Recommended by: Bryan Johnson, Jim O'Shaughnessy and 1 other

FactfulnessFactfulness
T2 Factfulness
Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Ronnlund · 2018
Open LibraryGoodreads

Hans Rosling was a global health professor, not an economist, which gives his data-driven case for human progress particular credibility. He shows, in meticulous detail, that almost every quantitative measure of human welfare has improved dramatically over the past century. He attributes this to global trade and economic development without being a polemicist.

Recommended by: Bill Gates, Alfred Lin, Daniel Petre and 4 others

Noise: A Flaw in Human JudgmentNoise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
T2 Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein · 2021
Open LibraryGoodreads

Kahneman died 27 March 2024; this was his last book.

More mental models

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