Cognitive biases, judgement and decisions

Papers on how people choose under risk, from prospect theory to framing.

A 20-year test of 28,000 expert forecasts: foxes with many models beat hedgehogs.

Speeches making the case for a latticework of mental models from many fields.

Beyond a point, more options make people less likely to choose and less satisfied.

Experiments showing most cheating is many people cheating a little.

Most decisions improve if you wait until the last responsible moment.

People can't act randomly, and how to exploit that in games, tests and markets.

Rethinking your beliefs is a skill apart from intelligence, and how to practise it.

How poker players, hedge fund managers and venture capitalists think about risk.

Tavris and Aronson focus on what happens after a bias fires: the self-justification, narrative revision, and escalating commitment that follow. Cognitive dissonance, they argue, is not a personality flaw but a universal mechanism, and understanding it explains police misconduct, political tribalism, and therapy failures in a single framework.

Builds out Munger's latticework idea from primary sources.

How complex systems, from subprime lending to space shuttles, drift into failure.

Bevelin distilling observation and inference habits from Sherlock Holmes

The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.

Dialogue form; Munger's inversion habit worked through systematically.

Michael Lewis's account of the Kahneman-Tversky collaboration works as intellectual biography and as a second path through the research for readers who find academic writing slow. The friendship and its eventual fracture clarifies how two very different minds produced work that neither could have done alone.

Reason evolved to justify ourselves and persuade others, not to think alone.

Why complex systems fail, from Volkswagen to Everest, and how to design against it.

Kahneman died 27 March 2024; this was his last book.

Experiments from psychology showing the systematic errors in how people reason.

One mental bias per chapter, the research behind it and how people fall for it.

Cognitive psychology applied to how leaders misperceive each other in foreign policy.

Edited volume

How firefighters, pilots and other experts decide under time pressure.

Why people mistake luck for skill, above all in markets.

Edited volume.

Why some people survive disasters that kill others in the same circumstances.

How snap judgments work, when to trust them and when they mislead.

How plate size, brand names and habit make people eat more than they realise.

How judging firms by their results corrupts most business research and advice.

Why people misjudge risk; the availability heuristic in public life

Eight mistakes experienced decision-makers repeat, and a correction for each.

Four traps that ruin decisions, such as narrow framing, and a process to beat each.

Why aviation learns from every failure while fields like medicine hide theirs.

Chance shapes success more than people think; what that means for fairer economies.

Why people stick too long with failing projects and careers, and how to quit well.