Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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Overconfidence

Mental models

Calibration research keeps returning the same result: confidence outruns accuracy, and the gap widens with information and expertise. Investors express it as precise forecasts, oversized positions and returns traded away. The counters are unglamorous - record explicit probabilities and score them later, and size every position for the version of the future where you are wrong.

Books 7Experts 3Recommenders 56Resources 4

Start here

  1. Thinking in BetsAnnie Duke, 2018
  2. Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman, 2011
  3. SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015
Fooled by RandomnessFooled by Randomness
T1 Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2001
Open LibraryGoodreads

Why people mistake luck for skill, above all in markets.

“Fooled by Randomness is a serious, intellectually sophisticated book, well worth reading carefully. At times, the book is condescending. Nevertheless, there are some great insights.” — Barton Biggs

Source: Biggs on a sophisticated book worth reading carefully

Recommended by: Barton Biggs, Michael Mauboussin and 11 others

Thinking, Fast and SlowThinking, Fast and Slow
T1 Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman · 2011
Open LibraryGoodreads

Kahneman's synthesis of behavioral economics is the cognitive science underpinning every negotiation tactic. Anchoring, loss aversion, framing effects, and the planning fallacy — understanding why these biases operate, not just that they exist, makes you harder to exploit and more honest about your own irrationality.

“…books I've recommended, highlighted to death, or forced on friends.” — Andrew Wilkinson

Source: Andrew Wilkinson's Bookshelf, neverenough.com

Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Charles de Vaulx and 32 others

SuperforecastingSuperforecasting
T1 Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner · 2015
Open LibraryGoodreads

The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.

Recommended by: Patrick Collison and 9 others

Judgment in Managerial Decision MakingJudgment in Managerial Decision Making
T2 Judgment in Managerial Decision Making
Max H. Bazerman · 1986
Open LibraryGoodreads

The biases that distort managers' decisions, with exercises that show them.

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Charlie Munger and 1 other

Expert Political JudgmentExpert Political Judgment
T2 Expert Political Judgment
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005
Open LibraryGoodreads

A 20-year test of 28,000 expert forecasts: foxes with many models beat hedgehogs.

“All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.” — Marc Andreessen

Source: @pmarca, 'Thread: Books I've recently read and recommend'

Recommended by: Marc Andreessen, Michael Mauboussin and 2 others

Thinking in BetsThinking in Bets
T2 Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke · 2018
Open LibraryGoodreads

Judge decisions by their reasoning, not their outcomes, and think in odds.

Recommended by: Ev Williams, Ana Fabrega, Jason Fried and 5 others

Black Box ThinkingBlack Box Thinking
T3 Black Box Thinking
Matthew Syed · 2015
Open LibraryGoodreads

Why aviation learns from every failure while fields like medicine hide theirs.

Recommended by: Richard Branson, Daniel Ek

More mental models

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