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Cognitive biases, judgement and decisions

Psychology and Behaviour

Books on how people judge, predict and decide, the biases that distort those judgements, and mental models for better decisions.

52 books on Cognitive biases, judgement and decisions, 3 of them tier 1, recommended by 69 people including Mohnish Pabrai and Michael Mauboussin.

52 books · 77 experts

Start here

  1. Choices, Values, and FramesDaniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, 2000
  2. Expert Political JudgmentPhilip E. Tetlock, 2005
  3. Poor Charlie's AlmanackCharlie Munger, 2005
  4. The Paradox of ChoiceBarry Schwartz, 2004
  5. The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone--- Especially OurselvesDan Ariely, 2012

The best books on Cognitive biases, judgement and decisions 52

Choices, Values, and FramesChoices, Values, and Frames
T1 Choices, Values, and Frames
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · 2000
Edited volume; Open Library lists first publication 1985.
Open Library
Expert Political JudgmentExpert Political Judgment
T1 Expert Political Judgment
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005
The twenty-year study showing expert prediction barely beats chance.
Open Library
“All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.”Marc Andreessen
Recommended byMarc AndreessenMichael MauboussinPatrick CollisonVinod Khosla
Poor Charlie's AlmanackPoor Charlie's Almanack
T1 Poor Charlie's Almanack
Charlie Munger · 2005
Edited by Peter Kaufman; expanded Stripe Press edition published 2023.
Open Library
“You will never find a book with more useful ideas.”Warren Buffett
Recommended byAndrew WilkinsonCharlie MungerChristopher BloomstranFrancois RochonGuy SpierLi LuMichael MauboussinMohnish Pabrai+20 more
The Paradox of ChoiceThe Paradox of Choice
T2 The Paradox of Choice
Barry Schwartz · 2004
Why more options reduce satisfaction and worsen decisions
Open Library
“It is almost ten years since Barry Schwartz published his popular psychology book "The Paradox of Choice".”Nick Sleep
Recommended byNat EliasonNick SleepNassim Nicholas Taleb
The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We LiThe Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone--- Especially Ourselves
T2 The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone--- Especially Ourselves
Dan Ariely · 2012
Ariely's research on cheating shows that most people will bend rules slightly but not dramatically — a finding that complicates simple models of self-interest. His fudge factor theory is at odds with rational-choice accounts of honesty.
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
WaitWait
T2 Wait
Frank Partnoy · 2012
Open Library
Recommended byTom Peters
Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to ORock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody
T2 Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody
William Poundstone · 2014
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
Think AgainThink Again
T2 Think Again
Adam Grant · 2021
Open Library
Recommended byJim O'ShaughnessyMelinda Gates
On the EdgeOn the Edge
T2 On the Edge
Nate Silver · 2024
Long treatment of Bankman-Fried and the expected-value culture he ran on.
Open Library
Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)
T3 Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)
Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson · 2007
Tavris and Aronson focus on what happens after a bias fires: the self-justification, narrative revision, and escalating commitment that follow. Cognitive dissonance, they argue, is not a personality flaw but a universal mechanism, and understanding it explains police misconduct, political tribalism, and therapy failures in a single framework.
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish PabraiNat EliasonAndrew WilkinsonPeter Attia
Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to MungerSeeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger
T3 Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger
Peter Bevelin · 2007
Builds out Munger's latticework idea from primary sources.
Open Library
“We've added a few titles this year. Among them are Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin”Warren Buffett
Recommended byAndrew WilkinsonNat EliasonWarren BuffettNassim Nicholas TalebCharlie MungerDavid CancelEric JorgensonJason Fried+2 more
Future BabbleFuture Babble
T3 Future Babble
Dan Gardner · 2010
Open Library
Recommended byThe Barefoot Investor
Drift into FailureDrift into Failure
T3 Drift into Failure
Sidney Dekker · 2011
Open Library
A Few Lessons from Sherlock HolmesA Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes
T3 A Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes
Peter Bevelin · 2013
Bevelin distilling observation and inference habits from Sherlock Holmes
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish PabraiPatrick O'ShaughnessyNassim Nicholas Taleb
SuperforecastingSuperforecasting
T3 Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner · 2015
The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.
Open Library
Recommended byPatrick CollisonRational Capital Investment FundAlexis OhanianAnthony PomplianoGuy ProopsJason ZweigJulia GalefMichael Mauboussin+2 more
All I Want to Know Is Where I'm Going to DieAll I Want to Know Is Where I'm Going to Die So I'll Never Go There
T3 All I Want to Know Is Where I'm Going to Die So I'll Never Go There
Peter Bevelin · 2016
Dialogue form; Munger's inversion habit worked through systematically.
Open Library
The Undoing ProjectThe Undoing Project
T3 The Undoing Project
Michael Lewis · 2016
Michael Lewis's account of the Kahneman-Tversky collaboration works as intellectual biography and as a second path through the research for readers who find academic writing slow. The friendship and its eventual fracture clarifies how two very different minds produced work that neither could have done alone.
Open Library
Recommended byAndrew WilkinsonMohnish PabraiRay DalioAlfred LinAnthony PomplianoMark CubanPaul BassatRaoul Pal+1 more
The Enigma of ReasonThe Enigma of Reason
T3 The Enigma of Reason
Hugo Mercier, Dan Sperber · 2017
Open Library
Meltdown: Why Our Systems Fail and What We CMeltdown: Why Our Systems Fail and What We Can Do About It
T3 Meltdown: Why Our Systems Fail and What We Can Do About It
Chris Clearfield, Andras Tilcsik · 2018
Open Library
The Great Mental ModelsThe Great Mental Models
T3 The Great Mental Models
Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien · 2020
Open Library
Recommended byAna FabregaChamath PalihapitiyaJenny ChuMatt MullenwegThe Rational Walk
Noise: A Flaw in Human JudgmentNoise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
T3 Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein · 2021
Kahneman died 27 March 2024; this was his last book.
Open Library
Clear ThinkingClear Thinking
T3 Clear Thinking
Shane Parrish · 2023
Open Library
IrrationalityIrrationality
T3 Irrationality
Stuart Sutherland
First published in 1992 and less famous than it deserves to be. Sutherland was a psychologist at Sussex who synthesized experimental evidence from social psychology, cognitive science, and psychiatry into a single readable volume. His treatment of in-group bias, obedience research, and medical decision-making fills gaps that the Kahneman-focused literature tends to leave.
unverified
You Are Not So SmartYou Are Not So Smart
T3 You Are Not So Smart
David McRaney
McRaney's blog turned book is the most self-deprecating entry on the list — each chapter names a bias, explains the research, and shows how the author himself falls for it. The format is reductive but effective for readers who want a broad survey without the weight of the primary sources.
unverified
Clinical Versus Statistical PredictionClinical Versus Statistical Prediction
T4 Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction
Paul E. Meehl · 1954
Open Library
Recommended byDaniel Kahneman
Perception and Misperception in InternationaPerception and Misperception in International Politics
T4 Perception and Misperception in International Politics
Robert Jervis · 1976
Open Library
Recommended byBill Gates
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BJudgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
T4 Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky · 1982
Edited volume; Open Library lists first publication 1981.
Open Library
Recommended byAdam Robinson
Thinking and DecidingThinking and Deciding
T4 Thinking and Deciding
Jonathan Baron · 1988
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility oHow We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
T4 How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
Thomas Gilovich · 1991
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
Sources of Power: How People Make DecisionsSources of Power: How People Make Decisions
T4 Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions
Gary Klein · 1998
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
Psychology of Intelligence AnalysisPsychology of Intelligence Analysis
T4 Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Richard J. Heuer · 1999
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
Fooled by RandomnessFooled by Randomness
T4 Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2001
Incerto volume 1
Open Library
“In his wonderful book, Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Taleb relates an anecdote that beautifully drives home the expected value message.”Michael Mauboussin
Recommended byBarton BiggsMichael MauboussinMohnish PabraiRational Capital Investment FundRyan HolidayEv WilliamsHoward MarksJames Altucher+5 more
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of IntHeuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
T4 Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Daniel Kahneman, Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin · 2002
Edited volume.
Open Library
Deep SurvivalDeep Survival
T4 Deep Survival
Laurence Gonzales · 2003
Who lives and who dies in extreme situations, and why
Open Library
Recommended byMichael MauboussinPatrick O'Shaughnessy
Blink: The Power of Thinking Without ThinkinBlink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking
T4 Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking
Malcolm Gladwell · 2004
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish PabraiEv WilliamsPacky McCormick
Mindless EatingMindless Eating
T4 Mindless Eating
Brian Wansink · 2006
Open Library
Recommended byRamit Sethi
The Halo EffectThe Halo Effect
T4 The Halo Effect
Phil Rosenzweig · 2007
Open Library
“Phil Rosenzweig's must-read book, The Halo Effect, shows this idea is alive and well in the business world.”Michael Mauboussin
Recommended byMichael MauboussinEv WilliamsMatt Mullenweg
How Judges ThinkHow Judges Think
T4 How Judges Think
Richard A. Posner, Richard A. Posner · 2008
Open Library
Recommended byPatrick Collison
The Science of FearThe Science of Fear
T4 The Science of Fear
Daniel Gardner · 2008
Why people misjudge risk; the availability heuristic in public life
Open Library
Recommended byMorgan Housel
Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for YouDance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You
T4 Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You
Spyros Makridakis · 2009
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of CounterThink Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
T4 Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Michael Mauboussin · 2009
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish PabraiRational Capital Investment Fund
Everything Is Obvious: Once You Know the AnsEverything Is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer
T4 Everything Is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer
Duncan J. Watts · 2011
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in LifeDecisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work
T4 Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work
Chip 15 Heath 15 · 2013
Open Library
Recommended byAndrew WilkinsonMohnish PabraiNat EliasonTony HsiehAlfred LinJulia Galef
Enlightenment 2.0: Restoring sanity to our pEnlightenment 2.0: Restoring sanity to our politics, our economy, and our lives
T4 Enlightenment 2.0: Restoring sanity to our politics, our economy, and our lives
Heath, Joseph · 2014
Open Library
Recommended byPatrick Collison
Black Box ThinkingBlack Box Thinking
T4 Black Box Thinking
Matthew Syed · 2015
Open Library
Recommended byRichard BransonDaniel Ek
Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy
T4 Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy
Robert H Frank · 2016
Open Library
Recommended byMohnish Pabrai
FarsightedFarsighted
T4 Farsighted
Steven Johnson · 2018
Open Library
Recommended byAlfred LinChris Dixon
The Scout MindsetThe Scout Mindset
T4 The Scout Mindset
Julia Galef · 2021
Open Library
Recommended byJulia GalefVitalik Buterin
Fooled
T4 Fooled
Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
unverified
Recommended byNat Eliason
Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk AwayQuit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away
T4 Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away
Annie Duke
unverified
Recommended byEv Williams
Sour GrapesSour Grapes
T4 Sour Grapes
unverified
Recommended byTim Ferriss
The Art of Clear Thinking
T4 The Art of Clear Thinking
Rolf Dobelli
unverified
Recommended byMichael Batko

Experts 77

The people who wrote this page's books, and the people who recommend them.

Authors 14

Daniel Kahnemanwrote 4 books here
PB
Peter Bevelinwrote 3 books here
AT
Amos Tverskywrote 2 books here
DG
Dan Gardnerwrote 2 books here
SP
Shane Parrishwrote 2 books hereCharlie Mungerwrote 1 book hereMichael Lewiswrote 1 book here
MM
Michael Mauboussinwrote 1 book hereNassim Nicholas Talebwrote 1 book hereAdam Grantwrote 1 book hereDan Arielywrote 1 book here
FP
Frank Partnoywrote 1 book here
Show all 14
WP
William Poundstonewrote 1 book hereJulia Galefwrote 1 book here

Recommenders 69

MP
Mohnish Pabrairecommends 17 books here
MM
Michael Mauboussinrecommends 6 books here
NE
Nat Eliasonrecommends 6 books here
AW
Andrew Wilkinsonrecommends 5 books herePatrick Collisonrecommends 5 books hereEv Williamsrecommends 4 books hereMatt Mullenwegrecommends 4 books hereNassim Nicholas Talebrecommends 3 books hereAlfred Linrecommends 3 books hereJulia Galefrecommends 3 books here
RC
Rational Capital Investment Fundrecommends 3 books hereCharlie Mungerrecommends 2 books here
Show all 69
Marc Andreessenrecommends 2 books hereWarren Buffettrecommends 2 books here
LL
Li Lurecommends 2 books here
SP
Shane Parrishrecommends 2 books here
AP
Anthony Pomplianorecommends 2 books hereBill Gatesrecommends 2 books hereDaniel Ekrecommends 2 books here
EJ
Eric Jorgensonrecommends 2 books here
MB
Michael Batkorecommends 2 books hereNaval Ravikantrecommends 2 books here
PO
Patrick O'Shaughnessyrecommends 2 books hereRamit Sethirecommends 2 books here
RP
Raoul Palrecommends 2 books here
TM
Terrance McArthurrecommends 2 books here
BI
The Barefoot Investorrecommends 2 books here
RW
The Rational Walkrecommends 2 books hereTim Ferrissrecommends 2 books hereDaniel Kahnemanrecommends 1 book hereHoward Marksrecommends 1 book hereRay Daliorecommends 1 book here
BB
Barton Biggsrecommends 1 book here
JZ
Jason Zweigrecommends 1 book here
MH
Morgan Houselrecommends 1 book here
NS
Nick Sleeprecommends 1 book here
TP
Tom Petersrecommends 1 book hereTyler Cowenrecommends 1 book here
FR
Francois Rochonrecommends 1 book hereGuy Spierrecommends 1 book hereRyan Holidayrecommends 1 book here
AR
Adam Robinsonrecommends 1 book hereAlexis Ohanianrecommends 1 book here
AF
Ana Fabregarecommends 1 book hereChamath Palihapitiyarecommends 1 book hereChris Dixonrecommends 1 book here
CB
Christopher Bloomstranrecommends 1 book here
DC
David Cancelrecommends 1 book hereDrew Houstonrecommends 1 book here
GP
Guy Proopsrecommends 1 book hereJames Altucherrecommends 1 book here
JF
Jason Friedrecommends 1 book here
JC
Jenny Churecommends 1 book here
JO
Jim O'Shaughnessyrecommends 1 book here
JW
Josh Wolferecommends 1 book hereMark Cubanrecommends 1 book hereMelinda Gatesrecommends 1 book here
NM
Nathan Murphyrecommends 1 book here
NS
Niki Scevakrecommends 1 book here
PM
Packy McCormickrecommends 1 book here
PB
Paul Bassatrecommends 1 book herePeter Attiarecommends 1 book hereRichard Bransonrecommends 1 book here
RH
Ryan Hooverrecommends 1 book here
RP
Ryan Petersonrecommends 1 book hereSam Altmanrecommends 1 book hereTony Hsiehrecommends 1 book hereVinod Khoslarecommends 1 book hereVitalik Buterinrecommends 1 book here
See all 77 in the Experts tab →

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