Forecasting and Decision Making Under Uncertainty
What is actually knowable about the future, how badly experts do, and how to make decisions anyway.
136 books · 27 people behind it · 1 reading lists
Start here
- SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015
- Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman, 2011
- The Black SwanNassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007
- Against the GodsPeter L. Bernstein, 1996
The people behind it 27
Each person holds a book in this entry or names it in their own tags.
Investors 7
Charlie Munger3 books hereRG
Robert G. Hagstrom3 books here
Howard Marks1 book herePL
Peter L. Bernstein1 book here
Ray Dalio1 book hereMM
Michael Mauboussinnamed in their tagsBM
Bill Millernamed in their tagsAcademics 8
Nassim Nicholas Taleb9 books here
Daniel Kahneman4 books hereAT
Amos Tversky2 books here
Richard H. Thaler1 book hereAG
Adam Grant1 book hereDA
Dan Ariely1 book hereFP
Frank Partnoy1 book hereMM
Michael Mauboussinnamed in their tagsStrategists 2
Journalists 10
RG
Robert G. Hagstrom3 books hereDG
Dan Gardner3 books herePB
Peter Bevelin3 books here
Michael Lewis2 books hereWP
William Poundstone2 books hereSP
Shane Parrish2 books herePL
Peter L. Bernstein1 book hereAG
Adam Grant1 book hereFP
Frank Partnoy1 book hereMH
Morgan Housel1 book hereReading list — The best books on decision making · Superbook
12 books, in the order the list argues for
This list traces an arc through three distinct traditions that have converged on the same problem. The cognitive-science foundation begins with Kahneman and Tversky's demonstration that human judgment is systematically biased — not randomly wrong, but wrong in predictable, documentable ways. Thinking Fast and Slow is the canonical text, but Noise (with Sibony and Sunstein) extends the argument to a largely overlooke
Sources: Annie Duke — Thinking in Bets (official site) · Howard Marks Memos — Oaktree Capital · Kahneman, Sibony, Sunstein — Noise (Farrar, Straus and Giroux) · Farnam Street — The Great Mental Models
Books 136
T1 On War
Carl von Clausewitz · 1835 · Friction, fog and the limits of planning; the classic on strategy
Peter L. Bernstein · 1996 · The history of how risk became measurable.
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005 · The twenty-year study showing expert prediction barely beats chance.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2007 · Fat tails and the limits of models built on the normal distribution.
Daniel Kahneman · 2011 · The summation of the heuristics-and-biases programme.
Andrew WilkinsonCharles de VaulxFrank MartinMichael MauboussinMohnish PabraiRational Capital Investment FundSeth KlarmanStewart BrandAbi Tyas TunggalAlbert WengerAlfred LinAmy HoodBill GatesBryan JohnsonCharlie MungerDaniel BurkaDavid CancelDavid HellmannEv WilliamsJason FriedJason ZweigJulie ZhuoMarc AndreessenNassim Nicholas TalebNaval RavikantPaul BassatRay DalioRon ConwaySahil BloomSahil LavingiaSam AltmanSatya NadellaSophie BakalarTristan Harris
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner · 2015 · The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.
Max H. Bazerman · 1986 · The standard text on decision bias written for managers
Herbert A. Simon · 1991 · Memoir by the Nobel laureate who founded bounded rationality
Robert G. Hagstrom · 2013 · Investing read through physics, biology, sociology and literature
Christopher Clark · 2013 · How Europe stumbled into 1914; decisions under uncertainty and momentum
John Kay, Mervyn King · 2020 · The case against forcing non-probabilistic problems into probability.
T2 Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein · 2021 · Unwanted variability in judgment, distinct from bias.
Bent Flyvbjerg, Dan Gardner · 2023 · Why megaprojects overrun, and the reference-class forecasting correction.
Douglas W. Hubbard · 2007 · Calibration and the value of information applied to intangibles.
Peter Bevelin · 2016 · Dialogue form; Munger's inversion habit worked through systematically.
Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths · Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths translate classical computer science results — optimal stopping, explore/exploit tradeoffs, scheduling — into guidance for human decisions. The 37% rule for when to stop searching and commit is the most cited single insight.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Taleb's first book makes the case that we systematically underestimate the role of luck in outcomes we attribute to skill. The argument is less rigorous than what follows but more readable — a good entry point into his critique of standard probability intuitions.
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Richard H. Thaler · Richard Thaler's memoir of behavioral economics: how the field was built against the resistance of standard economics, and what the key experiments actually showed. Complements Kahneman by focusing on institutional and policy implications rather than individual psychology.
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Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein · The overlooked twin of bias. Where Thinking Fast and Slow focuses on directional errors, this 2021 book examines variability: the fact that the same judge, doctor, or underwriter will give different answers to the same case on different days. Introduces 'decision hygiene' as a practical corrective.
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Charlie Munger · Munger's concept of the latticework of mental models is the best practitioner framework for decision quality. The Almanack collects his speeches and letters into a single volume. His approach — build a large repertoire, then invert — covers the ground that formal decision theory misses.
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Andrew WilkinsonCharlie MungerChristopher BloomstranFrancois RochonGuy SpierLi LuMichael MauboussinMohnish PabraiWarren BuffettBill GatesDaniel EkDrew HoustonEric JorgensonJosh WolfeMarc AndreessenMatt MullenwegMichael BatkoNathan MurphyNaval RavikantNiki ScevakPatrick CollisonRamit SethiRyan PetersonSam AltmanShane ParrishTerrance McArthurThe Barefoot InvestorTim Ferriss
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Taleb's most practical book. The central claim is that decision quality degrades when the decision-maker doesn't bear the consequences — and that most institutional advice fails this test. The asymmetry argument reframes accountability as an epistemic problem.
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Rolf Dobelli · A working catalogue of 99 cognitive errors, organized so you can actually use it. Less academic than Kahneman, more encyclopedic than Duke. The format — one bias per short chapter — makes it useful as a pre-mortem checklist before consequential decisions.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Extends the randomness argument to tail risks: the events that don't appear in historical data but dominate outcomes. The epistemology (what we can and cannot know) is more important than the popular-culture version of the book, which got reduced to 'bad things happen.'
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Howard Marks · Howard Marks on second-order thinking: the question is never 'is this good?' but 'is this better than what the market already believes?' His memos, distilled here, are a masterclass in calibrating confidence against the crowd — directly applicable beyond investing.
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Michael Lewis · Michael Lewis's account of the Kahneman-Tversky collaboration reads like a novel but carries the ideas. Useful for understanding which insights were contested within the field, and where the program's limits are. The friendship story illuminates how the work was actually done.
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Annie Duke · Annie Duke's best insight is definitional: a good decision is not one that produced a good outcome. Poker forces this distinction because the feedback loop is fast and the randomness is visible. Most other domains let you confuse luck and skill for years.
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B. H. Liddell Hart · 1944
James H. Austin · 1978 · A neurologist on the varieties of luck in scientific discovery
Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky · 1982 · Edited volume; Open Library lists first publication 1981.
Amos Tversky · 2000 · Edited volume; Open Library lists first publication 1985.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2001
Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin · 2002 · Edited volume.
Malcolm Gladwell · 2004
James Surowiecki · 2004
Eileen Shapiro, Howard Stevenson · 2005
Michael J. Mauboussin · 2009
T4 Supertrends
Lars Tvede · 2010 · Long-horizon view of the trends reshaping economies and markets.
Ted G. Lewis · 2011
Richard Rumelt · 2011
Michael Shearn · 2011 · Seventy questions to ask before buying any business.
T4 Antifragile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2012
Mohnish PabraiNat EliasonSeth KlarmanAlbert WengerAna FabregaAndrew ChenChangpeng ZhaoDavid EinhornDavid KadavyDavid PerellEv WilliamsJames AltucherMarc AndreessenMatt MullenwegNassim Nicholas TalebNaval RavikantPatrick O'ShaughnessyRyan PetersonSahil LavingiaShane ParrishSuperbook reading listsTerrance McArthurTim FerrissTobi LütkeTom BilyeuVinod KhoslaVlad Tenev
Edward B. Burger, Michael Starbird · 2012
Michael J. Mauboussin · 2012
Daniel C. Dennett · 2013
T4 decisive
Chip, Dan Heath · 2013
William Poundstone · 2014
Eben Otuteye, Mohammad Siddiquee · 2015
Brian Christian · 2016
Christopher Mayer · 2018 · Subtitled A Guide to Clear Thinking About Wall Street, Investing, and Life.
Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien · 2020
Michael Mauboussin · 2026 · Open Library lists the title as "Investing Mind".
Tim Harford
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Mohnish PabraiNat EliasonSeth KlarmanAlbert WengerAna FabregaAndrew ChenChangpeng ZhaoDavid EinhornDavid KadavyDavid PerellEv WilliamsJames AltucherMarc AndreessenMatt MullenwegNassim Nicholas TalebNaval RavikantPatrick O'ShaughnessyRyan PetersonSahil LavingiaShane ParrishSuperbook reading listsTerrance McArthurTim FerrissTobi LütkeTom BilyeuVinod KhoslaVlad Tenev
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Charlie Munger
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Peter Schwartz
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Donella H. Meadows
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Richard E. Neustadt, Ernest R. May
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