Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

Send feedback

What is it?
Screenshots, up to 3 (optional)
or paste one with Ctrl+V

We use your email only to reply to you.

Survivorship Bias

Mental models

Records are kept by the survivors, so any base rate built from what you can see is biased upward. Fund track records, founder advice and back-tested strategies all suffer from it, because the failures left no trace to count. The fix is to reconstruct the full starting cohort before drawing any conclusion about what works.

Books 6Experts 2Recommenders 37Resources 3

Start here

  1. How to Lie with StatisticsDarrell Huff, 1954
  2. The Halo EffectPhil Rosenzweig, 2007
  3. Fooled by RandomnessNassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001
How to Lie with StatisticsHow to Lie with Statistics
T1 How to Lie with Statistics
Darrell Huff · 1954
Open LibraryGoodreads

How biased samples, chosen averages and cut-off chart axes make numbers mislead.

Recommended by: Bill Gates, Mohnish Pabrai, Morgan Housel and 6 others

Fooled by RandomnessFooled by Randomness
T1 Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2001
Open LibraryGoodreads

Why people mistake luck for skill, above all in markets.

“Fooled by Randomness is a serious, intellectually sophisticated book, well worth reading carefully. At times, the book is condescending. Nevertheless, there are some great insights.” — Barton Biggs

Source: Biggs on a sophisticated book worth reading carefully

Recommended by: Barton Biggs, Michael Mauboussin and 11 others

The Black SwanThe Black Swan
T1 The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

Rare, unforeseen, high-impact events drive history, explained only after the fact.

“The message of The Black Swan is how important it is to realize that the things everyone rules out can still come to pass.” — Howard Marks

Source: Oaktree memo 'The Limits to Negativism'

Recommended by: Howard Marks, Marc Andreessen, Nat Eliason and 18 others

The Halo EffectThe Halo Effect
T2 The Halo Effect
Phil Rosenzweig · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

How judging firms by their results corrupts most business research and advice.

“Phil Rosenzweig's must-read book, The Halo Effect, shows this idea is alive and well in the business world.” — Michael Mauboussin

Source: Was Harry Potter Inevitable? Cumulative Advantage, Counterfactuals, and the Halo Effect (Legg Mason)

Recommended by: Michael Mauboussin, Ev Williams and 1 other

The Success EquationThe Success Equation
T2 The Success Equation
Michael J. Mauboussin · 2012
Open LibraryGoodreads

How to separate skill from luck in business, sport and investing.

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Jessica Livingston and 3 others

The Sports GeneThe Sports Gene
T3 The Sports Gene
David Epstein · 2013
Open LibraryGoodreads

Talent, training and genetics in elite athletic performance

Recommended by: Bill Miller, Mark Cuban, Michael Mauboussin

More mental models

← Sunk Cost FallacySystems Thinking →All mental models