
Popper's boundary between knowledge and story: a genuine thesis specifies the evidence that would prove it wrong. Write the kill criteria at purchase - the numbers or events that would mean you were wrong - and hunt for them harder than for confirmation. A thesis you cannot kill is not strong, it is untestable.
Falsifiability as the line between science and non-science.
Science moves through long stretches of normal work broken by paradigm shifts.
Recommended by: Nat Eliason, Charlie Munger, Mark Zuckerberg and 5 others
Knowledge grows by bold guesses that we then try to refute, not by proof.
Recommended by: Patrick Collison
Reflexivity, where beliefs move prices and prices move facts, tested in a live diary.
“The Alchemy joins Reminiscences of a Stock Operator as a timeless instructional guide to the marketplace.” — Paul Tudor Jones
Source: Tudor Jones pairing it with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Recommended by: Guy Spier, Paul Tudor Jones, Peter Cundill and 3 others
Rare, unforeseen, high-impact events drive history, explained only after the fact.
“The message of The Black Swan is how important it is to realize that the things everyone rules out can still come to pass.” — Howard Marks
Source: Oaktree memo 'The Limits to Negativism'
Recommended by: Howard Marks, Marc Andreessen, Nat Eliason and 18 others
The Good Judgment Project; the practices that measurably improve forecasts.
Recommended by: Patrick Collison and 9 others
How the Copernican revolution unfolded, as a turning point in scientific thought.
“Kuhn, The Copernican Revolution” — Paul Graham
Source: Rarely-Asked Questions — paulgraham.com
Recommended by: Patrick Collison, Paul Graham
Stories of a physicist's first marriage and his inquiry into the Challenger disaster.
“Richard Feynman's books are awesome. Very bright physicist. Must-read!” — Mohnish Pabrai
Source: Mohnish's Bookshelf — Unorganized, yet Interesting, entry 169
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Naval Ravikant, Larry Page
Reality through four strands: many-worlds physics, computation, evolution, Popper.
Recommended by: Naval Ravikant, Patrick Collison and 2 others
Nozick on objectivity and what stays invariant across perspectives
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The limits of scientific knowledge and what cannot be measured
Recommended by: Shane Parrish
Analytic philosophy and logic presented through humour
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Paul Grahamrecommends 2 books here
Charlie Mungerrecommends 1 book here
Mark Zuckerbergrecommends 1 book here