Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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Regression to the Mean

Mental models

Extreme results are part skill and part luck, and on the next draw the luck component resets, so outliers drift back toward average. Investors apply it by distrusting extrapolation: the fund on a hot streak, the company at record margins and the star analyst are each likelier to get worse than better. Where luck demonstrably drives the extreme, trimming after abnormal goodness is the model executed in one move.

Books 5Experts 3Recommenders 44Resources 4

Start here

  1. The Drunkard's WalkLeonard Mlodinow, 2008
  2. The Success EquationMichael J. Mauboussin, 2012
  3. Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman, 2011
Against the GodsAgainst the Gods
T1 Against the Gods
Peter L. Bernstein · 1996
Open LibraryGoodreads

How people learned to measure risk, from early probability to portfolio theory.

“I think some of the books that are a must would be Peter Bernstein's book about risk, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.” — Charles de Vaulx

Source: De Vaulx naming Bernstein's book a must-read on risk

Recommended by: Charles de Vaulx, Jim Collins and 8 others

Thinking, Fast and SlowThinking, Fast and Slow
T1 Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman · 2011
Open LibraryGoodreads

Kahneman's synthesis of behavioral economics is the cognitive science underpinning every negotiation tactic. Anchoring, loss aversion, framing effects, and the planning fallacy — understanding why these biases operate, not just that they exist, makes you harder to exploit and more honest about your own irrationality.

“…books I've recommended, highlighted to death, or forced on friends.” — Andrew Wilkinson

Source: Andrew Wilkinson's Bookshelf, neverenough.com

Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Charles de Vaulx and 32 others

The Halo EffectThe Halo Effect
T2 The Halo Effect
Phil Rosenzweig · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

How judging firms by their results corrupts most business research and advice.

“Phil Rosenzweig's must-read book, The Halo Effect, shows this idea is alive and well in the business world.” — Michael Mauboussin

Source: Was Harry Potter Inevitable? Cumulative Advantage, Counterfactuals, and the Halo Effect (Legg Mason)

Recommended by: Michael Mauboussin, Ev Williams and 1 other

The Drunkard's WalkThe Drunkard's Walk
T2 The Drunkard's Walk
Leonard Mlodinow · 2008
Open LibraryGoodreads

How randomness shapes our lives, the history of probability, and why we misread it.

Recommended by: Patrick Collison

The Success EquationThe Success Equation
T2 The Success Equation
Michael J. Mauboussin · 2012
Open LibraryGoodreads

How to separate skill from luck in business, sport and investing.

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Jessica Livingston and 3 others

More mental models

← ReflexivityScale and the Square-Cube Law →All mental models