Updates

  1. Person pages list letters, writing, profiles and links as sortable tables with filters, and show each person's companies as links; Fund letters show each letter's description in its own column.
  2. Experts show a checked job title and a short description of each person; 30 more people have photographs.
  3. Every company, fund, university and publication the experts work for has a page listing the people there.
  4. Fund letters show each letter's thesis and filter by it; 225 person pages list the essays, columns and newsletter issues the person wrote.
  5. Person pages list every essay and newsletter issue a person wrote, and their own books as a table in List view.
  6. Recommends shows the five largest kinds of book and the rest under More; browse pictures load sooner.
  7. Podcasts and talks link the original episode, filter by Audio and video or Press, and list each publisher once.
  8. Pages are wider, Recommends has List and Grid, and a filter clicked again turns off.
  9. Book cards sit in a ruled grid with Open Library and Goodreads links and each book's one-line note.
  10. Funds is now Investors; each investor's styles are buttons that filter the table.
  11. Podcasts and talks on a person's page filter by year and publisher and show as a list or a grid of pictures.
  12. Quotes show only people's own words: 472 summaries written by list sites are gone.
  13. Country pages open from Browse again, and every link on the shelf lands on a page.
  14. Subject and person pages show their sections as tabs, and each book appears once on a person's page.
  15. Book cards show the quote, who said it and the source; grids show five cards to a row.
  16. On a phone, a menu holds the sections, search, Updates, Feedback and dark mode.
  17. Feedback takes a screenshot of the page with no browser prompt, opens a screenshot full size when you click it, and clears itself once sent.
  18. Book cards are centred, search names the topic each book sits in, and any text cut short shows whole on hover.
  19. Search groups its results by kind: people, companies, geographies, subjects, topics, books, funds, fund letters and papers.
  20. The Books table lists who recommended each book by name, and the browser tab names the section you are in.
  21. Feedback can take a screenshot of the page, or one you paste or choose, and opens in the corner beside Updates.
  22. Each rail button reopens its section where you left it, and Browse, Table and People show on every book and subject page.
  23. Filters grey out choices that hold nothing instead of hiding them, and Books › People filters by authors or recommenders.
  24. Feedback takes a subject line and up to three screenshots.
  25. Biographies are grouped by the person they are about: 41 new pages, from Abraham Lincoln to Lee Kuan Yew.
  26. Sport splits into 23 sports, and Religion into one topic per faith.
  27. Book lists show as cards: the cover, one recommendation quote and every recommender by name.
  28. Seventeen subjects that had two or three pages under different names now have one page each.
  29. Every page lists its Experts as authors and recommenders, with a link to them on the Experts tab.
  30. Economics, Financial history, Financial panics and Accounting are subjects of their own, with one page per financial crisis.
  31. Book, person and subject pages open inside the app, so the tabs stay in view.
  32. 996 more book covers, and photographs or logos for 227 more people and companies.
  33. Books › Browse shows every subject as cards, and the rail holds Fund letters, Papers, Experts, Books and Funds.
  34. Every topic over 150 books splits into narrower topics, each with a page of its own.

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Availability Heuristic

Mental models

Probability judgements ride on how easily examples come to mind, so vivid and recent events swamp long-run frequencies. It is why portfolio insurance sells best after crashes and leverage after rallies, and why the last crisis is always over-hedged. The fix is mechanical: pull the longest data series available and let the count, not the memory, set the estimate.

Books 7Experts 4Recommenders 55Resources 4

Start here

  1. The Undoing ProjectMichael Lewis, 2016
  2. Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman, 2011
  3. A Short History of Financial EuphoriaJohn Kenneth Galbraith, 1990
A Short History of Financial EuphoriaA Short History of Financial Euphoria
T1 A Short History of Financial Euphoria
John Kenneth Galbraith · 1990
Open LibraryGoodreads

The recurring features of speculative booms, and why short memories bring them back.

Recommended by: Howard Marks and 2 others

The Black SwanThe Black Swan
T1 The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2007
Open LibraryGoodreads

Rare, unforeseen, high-impact events drive history, explained only after the fact.

“The message of The Black Swan is how important it is to realize that the things everyone rules out can still come to pass.” — Howard Marks

Source: Oaktree memo 'The Limits to Negativism'

Recommended by: Howard Marks, Marc Andreessen, Nat Eliason and 18 others

Thinking, Fast and SlowThinking, Fast and Slow
T1 Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman · 2011
Open LibraryGoodreads

Kahneman's synthesis of behavioral economics is the cognitive science underpinning every negotiation tactic. Anchoring, loss aversion, framing effects, and the planning fallacy — understanding why these biases operate, not just that they exist, makes you harder to exploit and more honest about your own irrationality.

“…books I've recommended, highlighted to death, or forced on friends.” — Andrew Wilkinson

Source: Andrew Wilkinson's Bookshelf, neverenough.com

Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Charles de Vaulx and 32 others

The Seven Sins of MemoryThe Seven Sins of Memory
T2 The Seven Sins of Memory
Daniel L. Schacter · 2001
Open LibraryGoodreads

Seven everyday ways memory fails, from fading over time to blocking a known name.

Recommended by: Shane Parrish

The Undoing ProjectThe Undoing Project
T2 The Undoing Project
Michael Lewis · 2016
Open LibraryGoodreads

Michael Lewis's account of the Kahneman-Tversky collaboration works as intellectual biography and as a second path through the research for readers who find academic writing slow. The friendship and its eventual fracture clarifies how two very different minds produced work that neither could have done alone.

Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Mohnish Pabrai, Ray Dalio and 6 others

The Science of FearThe Science of Fear
T3 The Science of Fear
Daniel Gardner · 2008
Open LibraryGoodreads

Why people misjudge risk; the availability heuristic in public life

Recommended by: Morgan Housel

The Art of Thinking ClearlyThe Art of Thinking Clearly
T3 The Art of Thinking Clearly
Rolf Dobelli · 2011
Open LibraryGoodreads

A working catalogue of 99 cognitive errors, organized so you can actually use it. Less academic than Kahneman, more encyclopedic than Duke. The format — one bias per short chapter — makes it useful as a pre-mortem checklist before consequential decisions.

Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai

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