Surviving the path, not just the destination; leverage, correlation breakdown and the difference between volatility and risk.
How people learned to measure risk, from early probability to portfolio theory.
“I think some of the books that are a must would be Peter Bernstein's book about risk, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.” — Charles de Vaulx
Source: De Vaulx naming Bernstein's book a must-read on risk
Recommended by: Charles de Vaulx, Jim Collins and 8 others
How a hedge fund's bond bets on borrowed money lost $4.6 billion in four months.
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai and 7 others
Rare, unforeseen, high-impact events drive history, explained only after the fact.
“The message of The Black Swan is how important it is to realize that the things everyone rules out can still come to pass.” — Howard Marks
Source: Oaktree memo 'The Limits to Negativism'
Recommended by: Howard Marks, Marc Andreessen, Nat Eliason and 18 others
Second-level thinking, risk and market cycles, drawn from Oaktree's client memos.
Recommended by: Matt Mullenweg, Mohnish Pabrai, Nat Eliason and 3 others
Against buy-and-hold: a few well-known positions, actively run, or else cash.
“The second book I read as a young investor was Gerald Loeb's Battle for Investment Survival, first published in 1934, the same year Ben Graham's seminal Security Analysis hit the bookstores, which…” — Frank Martin
Source: Martin on the second book he read as a young investor
Recommended by: Frank Martin
Shackleton's men survive after the ice crushes their ship Endurance in Antarctica.
Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Morgan Housel, Nat Eliason and 7 others
Avoid permanent loss: buy well below value and aim for absolute returns.
“Seth Klarman's 'Margin of Safety' is a good book about risk.” — Arnold Van Den Berg
Source: Van Den Berg on Margin of Safety as a book about risk
Recommended by: Arnold Van Den Berg, Frank Martin, Guy Spier and 6 others
The technical reference on extreme value theory for insurance and finance
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Includes a long Dalio interview predating the Principles publicity machine.
How the way organisations divide work blinds them, and how some break down silos.
“Gillian Tett's new book the Silo Effect, a thoughtful discussion of the downside of narrow specialisation.” — Seth Klarman
Source: Klarman on Gillian Tett on the downside of specialisation
Recommended by: Seth Klarman
How value at risk sums up a portfolio's possible loss in one number, and its limits.
Why some people survive disasters that kill others in the same circumstances.
Recommended by: Michael Mauboussin, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Why people misjudge risk; the availability heuristic in public life
Recommended by: Morgan Housel
A risk manager's history of quantitative risk and what value-at-risk is for.
Why people mistake luck for skill, above all in markets.
“Fooled by Randomness is a serious, intellectually sophisticated book, well worth reading carefully. At times, the book is condescending. Nevertheless, there are some great insights.” — Barton Biggs
Source: Biggs on a sophisticated book worth reading carefully
Recommended by: Barton Biggs, Michael Mauboussin and 11 others
Log-periodic power laws as a physicist's model of crash formation
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
William Ackmanrecommends 1 book here