Histories and theories of speculation, crowds and debt crises that span several episodes, from Mackay and Kindleberger to Reinhart and Rogoff and Dalio.
Why states rise and fall, explained through asabiyyah, the cohesion of a group.
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Mark Zuckerberg
How individuals lose judgement in a crowd and how leaders sway crowds.
“The Crowd, written in 1895 by Gustave Le Bon, is probably the most instrumental book in framing my ability to go against the grain of conventional thought and not feel insecure.” — Frank Martin
Source: Martin on the book that let him go against conventional thought
Recommended by: Frank Martin, Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Cundill and 1 other
Why mass movements of every kind draw the same frustrated people and use one method.
“My favourite book to recommend is The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements by Eric Hoffer. There is no discussion about investing, but it is extremely helpful in understanding…” — Joe Rosenberg
Source: Rosenberg on the book he most often recommends
Recommended by: Joe Rosenberg, Mohnish Pabrai and 6 others
Eight centuries of defaults and banking crises show the same patterns recurring.
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai and 3 others
A military historian's reflections on what history teaches and why we ignore it.
Recommended by: Morgan Housel, Nat Eliason, Shane Parrish
Recurring patterns drawn from world history: biology, morals, religion, economics.
“…books I've recommended, highlighted to death, or forced on friends.” — Andrew Wilkinson
Source: Andrew Wilkinson's Bookshelf, neverenough.com
Recommended by: Andrew Wilkinson, Balaji S. Srinivasan and 12 others
Preference falsification: why people hide their views and how that hides change.
“So this is one of the all time great books. Incredible.” — Marc Andreessen
Source: Lex Fridman Podcast #458 transcript — Marc Andreessen
Recommended by: Marc Andreessen
Log-periodic power laws as a physicist's model of crash formation
Recommended by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
A template for how big debt crises unfold, with detailed case studies.
Three centuries of bubbles and the bubble triangle of conditions that sets them off.
Argentina's 2001 default and the fifteen years of lawsuits and talks that followed.
Short accounts of manias, frauds and disasters, from tulips to the South Sea Bubble.
Recommended by: Morgan Housel
The Lloyd's of London Names catastrophe and unlimited liability.
The UK trust sector's own blow-up: gearing, cross-holdings and collapse.
Crowd manias from the Mississippi scheme and South Sea Bubble to witch trials.
“The first couple of chapters of this book, which describes in detail the great financial and stock market manias of the eighteenth century, are essential reading for all serious investors.” — Barton Biggs
Source: Biggs on the first chapters as essential reading
Recommended by: Barton Biggs, Bernard Baruch, Peter Cundill and 2 others
Buying securities to profit from changes in value, with twelve commandments.
“The oldest book in my hall of fame is not The Intelligent Investor, but The Art of Speculation by Philip Carret. The book was published in 1930 and the best part in the book is the '12 Commandments'.” — Francois Rochon
Source: Rochon on the oldest book in his hall of fame
Recommended by: Francois Rochon, Mohnish Pabrai
The recurring features of speculative booms, and why short memories bring them back.
Recommended by: Howard Marks and 2 others
Financial crises follow a repeated sequence of boom, mania, panic and crash.
Recommended by: Howard Marks, Li Lu
The history of business cycle theory and how credit cycles drive asset prices.
Speculation from ancient Rome and tulip mania to the 1990s, and its recurring traits.
Recommended by: Howard Marks, Mohnish Pabrai and 1 other
Five technological revolutions since 1771, and why each brings a financial bubble.
“Perhaps the best book on the topic is Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” — Michael Mauboussin
Source: New Business Boom and Bust: How Capitalism Experiments (Consilient Observer, Counterpoint Global)
Recommended by: Michael Mauboussin, Patrick Collison
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai
Client letters through the dot-com bubble; value discipline written contemporaneously
“What a unique opportunity to traverse the Bubble and post-Bubble years with Frank Martin, exactly as he described them to his clients in real time. Speculative Contagion is sure to enlighten…” — Seth Klarman
Source: Klarman on traversing the bubble years with Martin
Recommended by: Mohnish Pabrai, Seth Klarman, Warren Buffett
Free PDF at economicprinciples.org; first issued as A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises.
Recommended by: Ray Dalio
Mark Zuckerbergrecommends 1 book here